With headlines like “‘Super El Niño’ set to make next year hottest on record” one could be forgiven for thinking how can they Mmake predictions so far ahead?
Already there’s been chat of this summer being like 1976 - the very hot summer of 50 years ago.
Caused by the release of heat from the Pacific Ocean, El Niño occurs about three times a decade, exposing some parts of the world to floods, others to droughts, and raising global temperatures from one autumn into the following summer.
There is now an 82 per cent chance of a “very strong” El Niño forming this year, according to the average of four weather forecasters, including the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
“It’s fair to call this a super El Niño” said Mark Maslin, a professor of earth system science at University College London, adding that it may be the most severe ever recorded. Previous El Niños have significantly affected food production, helping to cut Russia’s 2010 wheat harvest by a third, ravaging coffee crops in southern Brazil in 1982 and perhaps prompting the bread riots that began the French Revolution in 1789.
